This is a public learning project
I am not presenting myself as the final authority on every subject covered here. That is part of the point. News moves across public policy, science, sports, business, technology, energy, health, and ordinary life. Nobody begins with a complete mental model of all of it.
I started this project to practice turning vague impressions into explicit estimates. When I write down the quantities I think I know, do the rough math, and compare the result with reliable evidence, I can see where my model of the world is sturdy and where I was, technically speaking, full of it.
Why publish the mistakes?
A polished solution can make estimation look easier and tidier than it is. My first-pass notes preserve the uncertain assumptions, arithmetic slips, category mistakes, and bad intuitions that occur before the answer is known. Then I check the estimate against sources and record what changed.
The aim is not to perform expertise or to be exactly right every time. It is to become better calibrated, one problem at a time, and to give readers a place to do the same alongside me.