Matt's results
How well does Matt estimate the world?
The reasoning score rewards useful facts, a sound approach, correct math, and a final estimate close to the sourced answer. Higher is better.
Headline insight
Strongest area: Public systems and economics
Across 61 scored problems, the most reliable patterns are easier to see by subject and reasoning method than from one overall number.
See detailed breakdown
Four parts. One reasoning score.
Useful facts + Reasoning approach + Math + Final estimate
Every reasoning score adds the points earned in four areas. Higher is better in every category.
Useful facts
Quality of remembered constants and domain anchors, sometimes called pegs.
11.3 / 30Average earned points
Reasoning approach
Whether the conceptual breakdown answered the question.
22.9 / 30Average earned points
Math
Correct arithmetic, units, and conversions.
6.6 / 10Average earned points
Final estimate
Closeness of the first pass to the sourced answer.
19.3 / 30Average earned points
Maximum points: 30 + 30 + 10 + 30 = 100. The same four components appear in each subject and model comparison below.
Published editorial grades, backfilled across the archive. Some older grades need a consistency review; these averages describe this set of problems, not a validated measure of ability. All charts use a 0-100 earned-point scale.
Every scored article is included in these aggregates. 61 of 63 published pages currently have a Reasoning score.
Reasoning score by issue
Higher is better. Issue sequence is a proxy for progress, not a verified attempt date. The unnumbered coffee issue is included in all averages, but omitted here. Changing topics and difficulty can change the trend.
Problem types
Performance by reasoning pattern.
This is the most useful view for learning transfer: the same model family can appear in politics, sports, science, infrastructure, and business news.
| Problem type | Articles | Avg score | Useful facts | Approach | Math | Final estimate | Sample note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dose, exposure, and health | 1 | 90 | 20 | 30 | 10 | 30 | Small sample |
| Counting, population, and volume | 1 | 80 | 20 | 30 | 10 | 20 | Small sample |
| Human flow and safety | 2 | 75 | 15 | 30 | 5 | 25 | Small sample |
| Human time and attention | 3 | 70 | 16.7 | 25 | 8.3 | 20 | Descriptive only |
| Unit conversion and scaling | 3 | 68.3 | 13.3 | 25 | 10 | 20 | Descriptive only |
| Geometry, area, and volume | 5 | 65 | 10 | 27 | 6 | 22 | Descriptive only |
| Stock-flow and throughput | 11 | 61.8 | 10.9 | 25.9 | 6.4 | 18.6 | Descriptive only |
| Logistics and material flow | 8 | 60.6 | 12.5 | 24.4 | 5 | 18.8 | Descriptive only |
| Energy, power, and physics | 12 | 58.8 | 10.8 | 20 | 7.9 | 20 | Descriptive only |
| Cost and economic scaling | 7 | 58.6 | 8.6 | 25.7 | 7.1 | 17.1 | Descriptive only |
| Probability and exponential scaling | 4 | 40 | 10 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 20 | Descriptive only |
| Motion, transport, and distance | 3 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 6.7 | 13.3 | Descriptive only |
| Scale comparison and infrastructure | 1 | 40 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10 | Small sample |
Subjects
Performance by subject matter.
Each article has one primary subject and one model family. These editorial groupings can change; original labels remain in the export. Small groups are especially sensitive to which problems were attempted.
| Subject | Articles | Avg score | Useful facts | Approach | Math | Final estimate | Sample note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everyday life and sports | 2 | 80 | 20 | 30 | 10 | 20 | Small sample |
| Public systems and economics | 11 | 72.3 | 15.5 | 27.3 | 6.8 | 22.7 | Descriptive only |
| Health, safety, and biology | 4 | 70 | 12.5 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 27.5 | Descriptive only |
| Engineering and robotics | 1 | 65 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 30 | Small sample |
| Earth, climate, and environment | 14 | 60.4 | 12.1 | 22.5 | 5.7 | 20 | Descriptive only |
| Energy and infrastructure | 10 | 57.5 | 9 | 22.5 | 7 | 19 | Descriptive only |
| Manufacturing and supply chains | 5 | 54 | 6 | 27 | 6 | 15 | Descriptive only |
| Space and astronomy | 5 | 53 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 16 | Descriptive only |
| Computing, media, and attention | 5 | 48 | 8 | 21 | 5 | 14 | Descriptive only |
| Transportation and aviation | 4 | 41.3 | 12.5 | 11.3 | 5 | 12.5 | Descriptive only |
Article ledger
The backfilled data.
Download the CSV or JSON. Component order below is pegs / model / math / result. Individual articles retain the grading explanations.
| Article | Subject | Problem type | Reasoning score | Useful facts / Reasoning approach / Math / Final estimate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much of Earth must still be protected to reach "30 by 30"? | Earth, climate, and environment | Geometry, area, and volume | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How much energy does it take to drop 240,000 liters of water on a wildfire? | Earth, climate, and environment | Energy, power, and physics | 55 | 20 / 15 / 0 / 20 |
| How many flights does Europe's jet-fuel deficit represent? | Transportation and aviation | Logistics and material flow | 35 | 20 / 15 / 0 / 0 |
| How much natural gas does a 250-MW AI data center require? | Energy and infrastructure | Energy, power, and physics | 90 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How much power does it take to move millions of barrels of oil through a pipeline? | Energy and infrastructure | Energy, power, and physics | 45 | 10 / 15 / 10 / 10 |
| How much sea-level rise comes from 12.5 trillion tons of ice? | Earth, climate, and environment | Geometry, area, and volume | 100 | 30 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How large is $38 billion in military terms? | Public systems and economics | Cost and economic scaling | 55 | 10 / 15 / 10 / 20 |
| How unusual is an Atlantic season with no hurricanes by mid-September? | Earth, climate, and environment | Probability and exponential scaling | 25 | 0 / 0 / 5 / 20 |
| How many books could teenagers read by replacing 30 minutes of daily screen time? | Public systems and economics | Human time and attention | 100 | 30 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How much electricity does a $1.9 billion nuclear-plant restart buy? | Energy and infrastructure | Cost and economic scaling | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How many truckloads of U.S. goods are affected by Canada's new tariffs? | Public systems and economics | Logistics and material flow | 55 | 20 / 15 / 0 / 20 |
| How much would expensive U.S. polysilicon add to the cost of solar power? | Manufacturing and supply chains | Cost and economic scaling | 50 | 0 / 30 / 10 / 10 |
| What does $40 trillion of U.S. debt cost each year? | Public systems and economics | Cost and economic scaling | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How many online ad auctions does Google run every second? | Computing, media, and attention | Stock-flow and throughput | 60 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 10 |
| How many cars would produce the same carbon emissions as Indonesia's wildfires? | Earth, climate, and environment | Unit conversion and scaling | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How much kinetic energy is in Hurricane Karina? | Earth, climate, and environment | Energy, power, and physics | 50 | 10 / 30 / 0 / 10 |
| How much warning time did Nepalese communities have? | Earth, climate, and environment | Motion, transport, and distance | 80 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| What does a 31% drop in traffic at the world's busiest international airport actually represent? | Transportation and aviation | Stock-flow and throughput | 75 | 20 / 30 / 5 / 20 |
| How much administrative work is involved in revoking 200,000 visas? | Public systems and economics | Stock-flow and throughput | 65 | 10 / 30 / 5 / 20 |
| How much battery energy does a humanoid robot need to sprint 100 meters? | Engineering and robotics | Energy, power, and physics | 65 | 10 / 15 / 10 / 30 |
| How much energy does an unusually warm Mediterranean contain? | Earth, climate, and environment | Energy, power, and physics | 90 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| At what point do satellites make astronomical images hard to avoid? | Space and astronomy | Probability and exponential scaling | 45 | 10 / 15 / 0 / 20 |
| How much rocket hardware does reusability save? | Space and astronomy | Logistics and material flow | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How much logistics does a major military exercise consume? | Public systems and economics | Logistics and material flow | 70 | 10 / 30 / 0 / 30 |
| How much human attention is going into microdramas? | Computing, media, and attention | Human time and attention | 30 | 0 / 15 / 5 / 10 |
| What would splitting the MMR vaccine add to the U.S. healthcare workload? | Health, safety, and biology | Stock-flow and throughput | 90 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How much power does it take to drive 406 mph? | Transportation and aviation | Energy, power, and physics | 40 | 10 / 0 / 10 / 20 |
| How much oil does it take to create a 2,000 km2 slick? | Earth, climate, and environment | Geometry, area, and volume | 50 | 0 / 30 / 0 / 20 |
| How much kinetic energy was carried away by the exploding star? | Space and astronomy | Energy, power, and physics | 50 | 0 / 30 / 10 / 10 |
| How many EV batteries could one Chinese lithium mine support? | Manufacturing and supply chains | Logistics and material flow | 40 | 0 / 15 / 5 / 20 |
| Feeding the additional population threatened by El Nino | Public systems and economics | Logistics and material flow | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How large a contact-tracing force would Congo need? | Health, safety, and biology | Stock-flow and throughput | 35 | 0 / 15 / 0 / 20 |
| Can 30 days of testing detect rare rogue AI behavior? | Computing, media, and attention | Probability and exponential scaling | 35 | 10 / 15 / 0 / 10 |
| Can Australia's EV imports explain falling gasoline imports? | Energy and infrastructure | Stock-flow and throughput | 35 | 0 / 15 / 0 / 20 |
| How much theater capacity did Spider-Man consume? | Computing, media, and attention | Stock-flow and throughput | 70 | 10 / 30 / 0 / 30 |
| How long does it take 60,000 people to evacuate? | Earth, climate, and environment | Human flow and safety | 60 | 10 / 30 / 0 / 20 |
| How much power could Amazon's $220 billion buildout need? | Energy and infrastructure | Cost and economic scaling | 25 | 0 / 15 / 0 / 10 |
| How long does a three-day factory shutdown echo? | Manufacturing and supply chains | Stock-flow and throughput | 75 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 15 |
| What does a two-hour strike wave require? | Public systems and economics | Logistics and material flow | 80 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How much energy did the Japan earthquake release? | Earth, climate, and environment | Probability and exponential scaling | 55 | 20 / 0 / 5 / 30 |
| How fast does Betelgeuse's companion orbit? | Space and astronomy | Motion, transport, and distance | 30 | 10 / 0 / 10 / 10 |
| Is a 24-hour nonstop flight fuel-efficient? | Transportation and aviation | Energy, power, and physics | 15 | 0 / 0 / 5 / 10 |
| How many facial-recognition alerts can one protest day create? | Computing, media, and attention | Stock-flow and throughput | 45 | 10 / 15 / 10 / 10 |
| How much energy did 20 reentering Starlinks release? | Space and astronomy | Energy, power, and physics | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How hard is it to distribute 500 million sterile flies? | Manufacturing and supply chains | Logistics and material flow | 65 | 10 / 30 / 5 / 20 |
| How big is a Lake Powell boat-ramp extension? | Energy and infrastructure | Geometry, area, and volume | 40 | 0 / 15 / 5 / 20 |
| Are AI-chip fabs city-scale infrastructure? | Manufacturing and supply chains | Scale comparison and infrastructure | 40 | 0 / 30 / 0 / 10 |
| How much wildfire smoke particulate does a region inhale in a day? | Earth, climate, and environment | Dose, exposure, and health | 90 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How big is a Texas Hill Country flood wave? | Earth, climate, and environment | Stock-flow and throughput | 40 | 0 / 30 / 10 / 0 |
| What does a 7.1% import-price jump cost a household? | Public systems and economics | Cost and economic scaling | 80 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| Are offshore wind turbines below the radar horizon? | Energy and infrastructure | Geometry, area, and volume | 65 | 10 / 30 / 5 / 20 |
| How many officer-days does one immigration arrest take? | Public systems and economics | Stock-flow and throughput | 90 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How much sweat-cooling does a World Cup half require? | Health, safety, and biology | Energy, power, and physics | 65 | 10 / 15 / 10 / 30 |
| How far can Mayon volcanic ash travel before falling? | Earth, climate, and environment | Motion, transport, and distance | 10 | 0 / 0 / 0 / 10 |
| How many usable exits does a crowded pub need during a fast fire? | Health, safety, and biology | Human flow and safety | 90 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 30 |
| How many power plants of extra AC demand can a heat dome create? | Energy and infrastructure | Energy, power, and physics | 70 | 10 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How many car fill-ups equal one day of oil through the Strait of Hormuz? | Energy and infrastructure | Unit conversion and scaling | 55 | 10 / 15 / 10 / 20 |
| How many households equal two years of U.S. electricity-demand growth? | Energy and infrastructure | Unit conversion and scaling | 80 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How many worker-years of human time are spent inside World Cup stadiums? | Everyday life and sports | Human time and attention | 80 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
| How big is U.S. pool maintenance compared with the Reflecting Pool project? | Public systems and economics | Cost and economic scaling | 60 | 10 / 30 / 0 / 20 |
| How many gallons of coffee do U.S. adults drink on an average day? | Everyday life and sports | Counting, population, and volume | 80 | 20 / 30 / 10 / 20 |
How strong are the pegs?
Peg points by technical area show how accurately remembered anchors supported the estimate. The reference ledger records how often a peg appears, including in sourced checks. Frequency does not establish recall accuracy. A per-peg assessment still needs the remembered value, checked value, and whether it was recalled, guessed, or supplied.
Your version
Your first estimates are tracked separately.
Your Results shows scale accuracy, subjects, problem types, and recent attempts. Optional passkey accounts can carry that history across devices.